Sunday, February 8, 2015
Inflation Video
This video offers a short explanation of inflation and it's causes. It goes into detail about the extent to which government plays a role in inflation.
Tuesday, February 3, 2015
Inflation and Unemployment Notes
Inflation & Unemployment Notes
Inflation
- Rise in general level of prices
- Standard for Inflation is 2-3%
Measuring Inflation
- Inflation Rate
- Measures the percentage increase in the price level over time
- Key indicator of the economy’s health
- Deflation
- Decline in the general price level
- Disinflation
- Occurs when the inflation rate itself declines
- CPI
- Measures inflation by tracking yearly price of a fixed basket of consumer goods and services
- In addition, CPI indicates changes in the cost of living and the price level
Solving Inflation Problems
- Finding inflation rate using market basket data
- (Current year market basket value - Base year market basket value)/Base year market basket value x 100
- Finding inflation rate using price indexes
- (Current year price index - Base year price index)/Base year price index x 100
- Estimating inflation using the rule of 70
- Rule of 70 is used to calculate the number of years it will take the price level to double at any given rate of inflation
- Years needed to double inflation= 70/(Annual inflation rate)
- Determining real wages
- Real Wages = Nominal Wages/Price Level x 100
- Finding real interest rates
- Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate - Inflation Premium
- Cost of borrowing or lending money adjusted for expected inflation
- Nominal Interest Rate
- Unadjusted cost of borrowing or lending money
Causes of Inflation
- Demand-pull inflation
- Caused by an excess of demand over output that pulls prices upwards
- Cost-push Inflation
- Caused by a rise in per unit production cost due to increasing resource cost
- Effects of Inflation
- Anticipated vs. Unanticipated Inflation
- Anticipated- Wages may be adjusted
- Unanticipated- Happens all of a sudden
- Helped by Unanticipated Inflation
- Borrowers- Debt will be repaid with cheaper dollars than that which were loaned out
- Fixed Contract
- Hurt by Unanticipated Inflation
- Fixed Income- Government paid (Social Security)
- Savers
- Lenders/Creditors
Unemployment
- Percentage of people that do not have jobs but are in the labor force
Labor Force
- Number of people in a country that are classified as either employed or unemployed
Unemployment Rate
- (# of Unemployed)/(# of unemployed + # of employed) x 100
Not in the labor force
- Kids
- Retired People
- Military Personnel
- Mentally Insane
- Incarcerated
- Stay at Home Parents
- Full Time Students
- Discouraged Workers
Official Employment Statistics
Start with total population of the U.S.
- Subtract those under 16
- Subtract those in military
- Subtract those that are institutionalized
This leaves the “Non Institutional Adult” population
- Subtract retired people
- Subtract homemakers
- Subtract full time students over the age of 16
- Subtract discouraged
This leaves the “Civilian Labor Force”
- Count employed (full/part time workers)
- Count employed (Unpaid workers in family business)
- Count those on strike, sick leave, vacation
- Count employed because they are actually looking for work
This becomes the “Unemployment Rate” in %
Four Types of Unemployment
- Frictional Unemployment- People between jobs (Choosing new opportunities, new lifestyle, new choices, new educational level)
- Seasonal Unemployment- Waiting for the right season to conduct your trade (Mall Santa Claus, Easter Bunny)
- Cyclical Unemployment- Downturns in business cycle (Recessions/Troughs)
- Bad for society and individuals
- Structural Unemployment- Lack of skills, decline in industry, technology changes
- Factory worker and factory moves somewhere else
- Can’t read or write
Full Employment
- Occurs when there is no cyclical unemployment present in the economy
- Natural Rate of Unemployment (NRU)
- 4-5% (Desired Goal)
Why is unemployment good?
- Less pressure to raise wages
- More workers are available for future expansions
Why is unemployment bad?
- Not enough consumption (GDP)
- Too much poverty
- Too much government assistance needed
Okun’s Law
- For every 1% of unemployment above the natural rate of unemployment causes a 2% decline in Real GDP
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